Here is an in-depth look at my top-10 quarterbacks for the 2022 season.
# 1 Josh Allen (BUF)
The back-to-back reigning fantasy QB1 showed no signs of slowing down in 2021. Allen led the quarterback position averaging 24.6 fantasy points per game. The Bills quarterback's dual-threat ability - third in rushing yards (763) - provides him a fantasy ceiling that only a few other quarterbacks can match. No quarterback had more top-3 finishes or top-8 weekly finishes than Allen did a season ago. That's why he's deserving of being the first quarterback drafted across all formats.
# 2 Justin Herbert (LAC)
Justin Herbert finished third in touchdowns and third in fantasy points per game with 22.7. The Los Angeles Chargers signal-caller is a certified stud - a top-five, elite-tier fantasy quarterback in 2022. Only Tom Brady and Josh Allen posted as many top-5 weeks as Herbert did last season. He and Brady led the NFL with nine 300-yard passing games. Since entering the NFL in 2020, Herbert has thrown for 300-plus yards in 53% of his games played. Even if his rushing doesn't stack up with the league's elite, Herbert's cannon provides almost everything he needs to close the gap.
# 3 Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Lamar Jackson had a season to forget in 2021, as he dealt with a plethora of injuries/illnesses and regressed immensely as a passer. Despite all his shortcomings as a passer, Jackson still finished the season seventh in fantasy points per game 21.3. Jackson may never recapture his 2019 rare MVP form when he averaged north of 28 fantasy points per game, but a 22-point per game average seems like his norm based on his last two years of fantasy production. In 2020, he led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback. That cements him as a clear-cut top-5 fantasy QB.
# 4 Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Despite the ups-and-downs of the KC Chiefs offense as a response to the Cover 2 defense, Patrick Mahomes was as stellar as ever from a fantasy perspective. The former MVP ranked fourth in fantasy points per game 22.0 tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game in 2020 with 25.2. Additionally, the loss of Tyreek Hill cannot be ignored heading into 2022. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 and there's real concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill. He's likely being overvalued as the QB2 in early drafts on name recognition alone.
# 5 Kyler Murray (ARI)
Losing Hopkins for six games cannot be ignored, but the addition of Marquise Brown figures to make up for some of the lost production. Murray's production dipped last season without Hopkins in the lineup over the final four weeks of the season. He averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game and 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Murray averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game and 8.7 yards per attempt in the nine games with Hopkins fully healthy.
# 6 Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is easily the biggest winner as A.J. Brown's absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee was a primary driving force behind Ryan Tannehill's fantasy success as a Titan. Hurts is an easy top-eight fantasy quarterback next season with top-five status well within reach. The Eagles ranked second in screen rate a season ago, so anticipate plenty of plays where Hurts just dumps the ball off to AJB for massive chunk gains.
# 7 Tom Brady (TB)
At age 44, Tom Brady attempted the most passes in the league (719) and finished with the most passing yards (5,316) and second-most passing touchdowns (43) in any single season of his career. Brady was the QB3 in fantasy points per game. While he might not reach those heights in 2022, he will still be leading one of the NFL's fastest-paced and most talented offenses. If Brady's fountain of youth and avocado milkshakes can hold off father time, he's a top 5-10 option at the position in fantasy.
# 8 Russell Wilson (DEN)
Russell Wilson's weapons/supporting cast overall are pretty even going from Seattle to Denver, but Nathaniel Hackett calling the shots is an upgrade over Pete Carroll. Hackett's obviously had success with Aaron Rodgers that has translated into fantasy, so a top-five fantasy quarterback outcome is firmly in play with Wilson in 2022. After all, Wilson's long track record of efficient fantasy play is undeniable - he has finished among the top-six fantasy QBs five times since 2014. I like his chances of making it seven in 2022. Because Wilson is still among the league's elite passers when healthy. Before the finger derailed his season, Russ led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before Week 5. Wilson also finished the season on a high note, averaging over 24 fantasy points per game in his last three contests.
# 9 Joe Burrow (CIN)
Joe Burrow finished the regular season as the QB8 averaging just north of 20.5 fantasy points per game. The Bengals quarterback has undoubtedly entered the conversation as one of the league's best real-life NFL passers, but might be slightly overvalued based on early ADP with impending regression. He's the QB6 despite finishing as a top-6 fantasy quarterback just three times in 2021. Also can't forget to mention the Bengals revamped their offensive line as they look to not let their franchise quarterback get sacked 70 times - 22 more than the next closest quarterback.
# 10 Dak Prescott (DAL)
With their backs up against the salary cap, the Dallas Cowboys didn't have an offseason to remember for anybody heavily invested in Dak Prescott's 2022 fantasy prospects. They gave up Amari Cooper and lost two key starting offensive pieces on the offensive line with La'el Collins and Connor Williams for little return. He finished as the QB9 last year in points per game, and I'd argue his situation - aside from health - isn't as ideal as it was a season ago. His rushing also hit career-low numbers in 2021. They did re-sign Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup, but early reports on Gallup indicate it will be close whether he's ready for Week 1 coming off the torn ACL. Dallas' biggest move in free agency and the NFL Draft to combat their losses was signing former Steelers wide receiver James Washington, drafting Jalen Tolbert in Round 3 and selecting offensive tackle project Tyler Smith in Round 1.